Road to World CUP 2014 with $100

[Vinagre]

Hi all!

I want to go to world cup 2014 but i have a big problem. Just have $100 in my bank account!
I'm not from Brazil so i will need money to fly, eat, DRINK, buy soccer tickets, rest and maybe a little more to .... (you know, right?)

So i have a big problem here.

But for big problems we have BET solutions!

I didnt place a single bet on sports since a long time ago but betting is one of the solutions to resolve this problem.

I will bet my $100 bank account untill have enought money to go to Brazil or i will lose these $100 and will stay at home... watching tv.

Do you believe i can go to Brazil? Anyone who are reading this topic wants to follow my bets and go to Brazil too?

Please do not answer yet. First read my plan:

I will try to have $1.000 at the end of February. Then i will go from $1.000 to $10.000.

My Money management system is easy: I will always bet 10% of current bank at a single game and never will have 2 bets open at same time.
Easy isnt it? I start bet $20, lets say at 1,30 and if win go to $106 so next bet will be $21.2

Selection system: I will not detaill here how i will select soccer games but will always bet Double Chance and always against the draw.
Lets say that i select English game Chelsea vs Arsenal i will bet DOUBLE CHANCE (i will win if game didnt finish a draw).

I will post all selections here and will use bet365 odds. They havent the best payment (usually pays 93.9%) so you can find better odds at Pinnacle, Marathon, BetVictor, 5 Dimes (usually above 96%) or Sportingbet, 10bet, 188bet, sbobet, william Hill (usually above 94%).

If you want to follow me and your bookie didnt have Double Chance you can do it betting on Home and Away team using the 1X2 odds (pm me if you dont know how do the maths for it).

So what i need?
I need untill the end of Februry place +/- 120 bets and win 84% or better. Crazy isnt it? Yes it is but do not forget one thing:
If i lose i will lose just $100. If i win i will go to Brasil and just risk $100.

I will try it just one time and will post here all the bets to place next day. The same way i will keep here the records day after day till last February or stop if bust! My time is GMT+0 so all games will be posted to start with this time reference.

I could have 2 problems to hit my target:
1st is lose the money with bad selections.
2nd could be hard find under my hard system selection rules enought games to bet and starting with 2 or more hours later then the last one.

Anyway i will do my best!

Now i will ask again: Who wants to go to Brazil to the see live the World Cup?

Let's go guys..... i will not charge anything! All picks for free! Lets start with $100.

 

[Vinagre]

Day 1

Start Bank: $100

Bets for Sunday, 16 Dec 2013

17:00 -> POLAND: Ekstraklasa -> Wisla - Pogon Szczecin -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 - Always 20% of my bank
19:30 -> FRANCE: Ligue 2 -> Dijon - Clermont -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,38 - Always 20% of my bank

 

[Vinagre]

VERY IMPORTANT
I cant edit my first post (forum limitations) My Money management system is: Always bet 20% of current bank at a single
By mystake in the first post we can see 10% buts 20%

 

[palehose1]

Cant tell who u r picking,,,,,confusing!

 

[xej]

he's picking double change to win:
wisla or Pogon (draw is a losing bet)
Dijon or Clermont (draw is a losing bet)
In europe 1x2 means:
1 = home to win
X = draw
2 = away to win

 

[Vinagre]

he's picking double change to win:
wisla or Pogon (draw is a losing bet)
Dijon or Clermont (draw is a losing bet)
In europe 1x2 means:
1 = home to win
X = draw
2 = away to win

Great help. Many thanks! 100% as you said.

Cant tell who u r picking,,,,,confusing!

Sorry if isnt clear. I will try to explain it better later.
And if the european way is confused i can try to post it different.

 

[Vinagre]

17:00 -> POLAND: Ekstraklasa -> Wisla - Pogon Szczecin -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 - Always 20% of my bank $20,00 FT 2-1 Win $7,00
19:30 -> FRANCE: Ligue 2 -> Dijon - Clermont -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,38 - Always 20% of my bank $21,40 FT 1-0 Win $8,13

Started -> 16-12-2013
Start Bank -> $100,00
Current Bank -> $115,13
Profit -> $15,13
ROI % -> 23,49%

WON Bets -> 2 -> 100,00%
Lost Bets -> 0 -> 0,00%
Days running -> 1
Days left -> 72

 

[Vinagre]

How to convert odds? American to decimal and Decimal to American

This is a cool article i found at wisestats.com



American to Decimal

Positive Odds (“+”): Divide the moneyline by 100 and add 1.
decimal = (moneyline/100) +1
Examples:

• +100: (100/100) + 1 = 1 + 1 = 2.00
• +235: (235/100) + 1 = 2.35 + 1 = 3.35

Negative Odds (“-“): The conversion is performed by dividing 100 by the moneyline, then adding this value to 1.00.
decimal = (100/moneyline) + 1
Examples:

• -110: (100/110) +1 = 1 + 0.9091 = 1.9091
• -152: (100/152) +1 = 1 + 0.6579 = 1.6579

Decimal to American

To convert a decimal of 2.00 or higher:
moneyline = (decimal – 1) *100
Examples:

• 2.00: (2.00 – 1)*100 = 1*100 = +100
• 3.35: (3.35 – 1)*100 = 2.35*100 = +235

To convert a decimal of less than 2.00:
moneyline = (-100) / (decimal -1)
Examples:

• 1.9091 : (-100)/(1.9091 – 1) = (-100)/(0.9091) = -109.99 = -110
• 1.6579 : (-100)/(1.6579 – 1) = (-100)/(0.6579) = -151.98 = -152
• 1.3000: (-100)/(1.3000 – 1) = (-100)/(0.3000) = -333.33 = -333

 

[xej]

nice job !

 

[Vinagre]

Road to Brazil - World CUP 2014 with $100 - Strategy and Manegement

Introduction:

I'm from Portugal, Europe. My native language is not English so you will need some pacience to read and understand me. Anyway i will try to be very clear anytime i'm saying that i'm betting in one soccer game.
My time is GMT+0 and i will use it to show the kickoff time to each event. The same way i will use decimal odds and one European Bookie as reference.

I started with a $100 bank account balance and my 1st target its go to $1.000 at 26 february 2014. Then i will continue and try to hit $10.000 at 15 May 2013.

The Strategy:

All bets will be placed TO RISK. This means that we will stake one certain amount to lose if lost bet and will have a return (ODD x Stake) if win each single bet.
All selections will be Soccer matches.
I will not talk about the selection method but will post here all the selections to be placed for next day.
My strategy didnt include any chase bet neither parlays. If someone see value on it could use and will have for sure different results when compared with the ones posted here.
Each bet will be a single bet and will bet in the next event just after the last ones finishes.
This way we will stake the next bet with 20% of the current bank statement.
I will bet always 20% of my current bank in each selection. REMEMBER that current BANK STATEMENT is the amount i have in my account starting with $100. I will not do any withdraw neither deposit in this process. PLEASE never bet 20% of your bank in one single selection following my tips. Just do it if you decide to follow me with some percentage of your bank. Please use just a percentage you can lose without any problem. (If you want to follow me use the maximum of 5% of your money available to bet.) This % will be your TOTAL bank account statement to follow this strategy.

The Method / MM SYSTEM:

As said before will not talk here about the way i select games neither the reason i select one and didnt select other. Anyway i'm available to answer all questions the same way i will post some comments before and after games finish.

Soccer has 3 possible outcomes:
1 or Home Win
2 or Away Win
X or Draw

We will always bet on two of these three possible results.
Some bookies offered this king of selection usually called "Double Chance". All bets will be placed to WIN if HOME or AWAY team wins the game. So we will lose money each time games finishes a draw and earn money each time HOME or AWAY team wons. Desnt matter wish one won we will profit same amount.

If your bookie didnt have this "Double Chance" option dont worry. You can follow my thread the same way and bet. Just need to do some Math and split your stake in 2 bets (Home to WIN and Away to WIN) always TO RISK - Never TO WIN. This way you need to place some % of yur money to risk in one one at the Home Side and other % in the Away side. I will help with this simple math in one of the nexts posts.

ODDs and side strategy

I will place Odds from bet365.com but you are free to use any other bookie. If you read my 1st post in this thread you will see that you can find better bookies (it means bookies with better payments). This doesnt mean that i'm betting there. Just use it to have one refrence.

Betting Double Chance is the same as LAY (in Exchanges) the other outcome. As we will bet on Home and Away you can use one exchange to LAY the DRAW cause it's exactly the same thing. The only difference could be the stake. If we will Risk $20, for an example this means that you will have a MAX Liabilty of $20 if you place it as a LAY bet. Risk $20 wth an 1.50 odd (-200 in American odds) in a bookie is the same as LAY $10 with a MAX Liability of $20 in one exchange like Betfair.com.
Doubts in Math like any other doubt, question or comment will be welkome during all this process.

I will start with $100 and will try to go to $1.000 in 73 days. Then will have more 75 days to hit $10.000 and go to BRAZIL.
If i didnt pick enought winners and bust i will close this topic after answer all questions and comments and will not deposit to bet again with this system. By system i mean the process i use to select games to bet.

I know thats a hard challenge but i believe thats possible and this is not just a feeling...

For last, but not less important:

I´m not selling any service neither promisse anything else then posting my selections and keep a clean record (green or red).

You will follow me or not by your own risk.

PS: During this challange we will have winning days and losing days. I want to hit 85% of the selections with winners. One small drop to 80% will produce profit but not good enought. 75% winners and i will be in the red line so my last words is once again to advice you about the risk we have here. Do not put all your eggs in the same basket. It means that just use a small % of your bank if you decide to follow me and keep all records at an excel sheet to know eactly whats the amount to Risk in the next selection.

See you in Brazil!

 

[Vinagre]

Bet Double Chance with MoneyLine Odds

Bet Double Chance with MoneyLine Odds its very easy

I will explain it with Decimal Odds. If you're using American Odds just need to convert it. Chek the other post in this thread or follow the link at my signature.

So Lets say you want to bet in a soccer game and your bookie didnt have DOUBLE CHANCE or you have money in more then 1 bookie and want to earn ore value betting Home Team at Bookie 1 and Away team at Bookie 2.

You start with 3 numbers:
The stake (amount) you want TO RISK: $20
Home team Odd: 1.80
Away team Odd: 4.75

Home team stake (amount) will be = ((Away Odd x Total Stake) / (Home Odd + Away Odd)) =
=((4.75 x $20) / (1.80 + 4.75 )) = 95 / 6.55 = $14.50

Away team stake (amount) will be = The stake (amount) you want TO RISK - Home team Stake =
= $20 - $14.50 = 5.50

If game finishes a DRAW you will lose $20

If Home wins you will receive = $14.50 x 1.80 = $26.10

If Away wins you will receive = $5.50 x 4.75 = $26.10

So DOUBLE CHANCE ODD = 1 + ((Return - Total Stake) / Total Stake) = 1+ (($26.10 - $20) / $20 ) = 1 +( $6.1 / $20 ) = 1.31 Decimal


Convert to American:
1.31 = (-100) / (1.31 - 1) = -100 / 0.31 = -323 (American Odds)

See you in Brazil!

 

[Vinagre]

Day 2

Start Bank -> $100,00
Current Bank -> $115,13

Bets for Tuesday, 17 Dec 13

17-Dez terça-feira 17:00 -> TURKEY: Turkish Cup - First stage -> Kardemir Karabuk - Elazigspor -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,32 - Always 20% of my bank
17-Dez terça-feira 19:30 -> AUSTRIA: tipp3-Bundesliga -> Grodig - Admira -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,31 - Always 20% of my bank.

Firts bet $23,03

Second Bet
If 1st wins: $24,50
If 1st Loses: $18,42


PS: My original system didnt have selections for today. So i need to enlarge a little my range to select 2 games for today.
Yesterday the original system had 4 outputs that record 3-1. We had lucky and select 2 winners.
If we used the range i'm using today we had 9 outputs that resulted in a 8-1. Playing in different times we finished 3-0.
The biggest problem is that with these 20% bank strategy we need to find outputs playing with 2 hours difference. So we need to go slowly and sometimes losing a lot of winners.

 

[palehose1]

Way too FN confusing how about just telling us which team will win ,,,,,,,,,What a concept .

 

[Vinagre]

Way too FN confusing how about just telling us which team will win ,,,,,,,,,What a concept .

I can understand you. As you know soccer have 3 possible outcomes. I'm betting on two of them. When playing this kind of bet people usually selects one side and "defend" with the draw. My strategy is different. I believe that the game will not finish a draw so i pick both sides to win.

 

[FolkHero]

Way to go Vinagre -- that's four in a row! Low odds - but still four in a row. I tailed all four bets just for fun - but not at 20% of my bankroll. I use Betfair and simply Laid the Draw (i.e. made a Lay bet against the draw happening) -- and received slightly better odds than you.

If you don't mind: is there a method to your selections?

Looking forward to seeing if you get to Brazil. Good luck!

 

[LoCalDallasGuy]

gluck

 

[Vinagre]

Way to go Vinagre -- that's four in a row! Low odds - but still four in a row. I tailed all four bets just for fun - but not at 20% of my bankroll. I use Betfair and simply Laid the Draw (i.e. made a Lay bet against the draw happening) -- and received slightly better odds than you.

If you don't mind: is there a method to your selections?

Looking forward to seeing if you get to Brazil. Good luck!

Thanks for your words but's not 4 in the row. Its 3-1 - We lost in Turkey.

About the odds: Yes as i said in other post this is the same as LAY the Draw. I dint bet at bet365. I use it just as a reference here. I didnt like threads where people post the best odd available cause it isnt real. No one have money at all bookies so we need to have some bookies (usually no more then 3) as reference for odds. I decided to post always bet365odds the same way i could use other bookie.

Why i ddnt post here Betfair odds? Just because there it changes faster then any other bookie.

Yes, i have one hard method of selection but as i said i will not reveal it here for now. Today i made a mystake as i said in the picks post for today. I used 2 out of system selections and lost one. This means that now i need 4 winners to cover it. From now one i will stay just in the method selections doesnt matter if have or not outputs for the day.

My advice is not to bet 20% of your bankroll. My advice is to take some money to follow me (lets say $100) and consider these $100 as the Full Bankroll for this system. So we will bet 20% of the money we earn starting with these $100, Thats why is very important use excel sheet to keep it record and know exactly wish amount to bet in the next selection.

In other words.... if you decide to follow me take some money appart ($100 or less) and think that this money is already lost. Now we will follow a system and we will never lose more then $100 with it (the starting bank). During the nexts 70 days we will try to go with these 100 till 1000 (no withdraws). If we start with 100 and after 40 days we have 500 (for example) we continue bet 20% but is 20% of the money we generated with these $100. If after 70 dasy we lost all how many we really lost? Just $100

You do not know me and i didnt described my records neither my knowledge in sportsbet so its obvious that you cant play much money following me. Doesnt matter if you like or not my plain, my words. We are talking about money. If you can go with 100 go with 50, 20, it doesnt matter. If you have a lot of money and 100 is nothing to you thats ok the same way others will play with less then 100 you can go with more then 100 but Never reserve for this system more then 5% of the total bank you have to play.

If yout total bankroll for sports bets its 2k and you want to follow my selections and management never start with more then 100 = 2000 x 0.05
And this are all the money you could lose. Never more then this.

Its clear my idea now? I'm so sorry buts not easy write in english for me. Sorry for that.

 

[Vinagre]

Day 2

Start Bank -> $100,00
Current Bank -> $115,13

Bets for Tuesday, 17 Dec 13

17-Dez terça-feira 17:00 -> TURKEY: Turkish Cup - First stage -> Kardemir Karabuk - Elazigspor -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,32 - Always 20% of my bank
17-Dez terça-feira 19:30 -> AUSTRIA: tipp3-Bundesliga -> Grodig - Admira -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,31 - Always 20% of my bank.

Firts bet $23,03

Second Bet
If 1st wins: $24,50
If 1st Loses: $18,42


PS: My original system didnt have selections for today. So i need to enlarge a little my range to select 2 games for today.
Yesterday the original system had 4 outputs that record 3-1. We had lucky and select 2 winners.
If we used the range i'm using today we had 9 outputs that resulted in a 8-1. Playing in different times we finished 3-0.
The biggest problem is that with these 20% bank strategy we need to find outputs playing with 2 hours difference. So we need to go slowly and sometimes losing a lot of winners.

BIG MYSTAKE My bad

Yes thats true. Today i made a big mystake. If my selection process didnt have selections i had to stay out of betting, out of posting.
I said it in the post. So we played in 2 selections out of range and day finished 1-1 this means that now i need 4 winners to cover it.
I tried to go faster and the result is 2 went back 2 days....

From now on, doesnt matter if i have selections or not, doesnt matter if the system is working fine or losing. I will stay 100% just on system selections.

 

[Vinagre]

Started -> 16-12-2013
Start Bank -> $100,00
Current Bank -> $97,82
Profit -> -$2,18
ROI % -> -1,09%

WON Bets -> 3 -> 75,00%
Lost Bets -> 1 -> 25,00%
Days running -> 3
Days left -> 70
Avg Profit / day -> -$0,73


Day 3

Wednesday, 18 dec

15:15 -> GREECE: Super League -> Skoda Xanthi - OFI Crete -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 - Always 20% of my bank -> $19.56
USA Odds (-285)

18:30 -> ROMANIA: Liga I -> Steaua Bucuresti - Astra -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,33 - Always 20% of my bank -> If last one Wins -> $20.93 or $15.65 if last one Lost
USA Odds (-301)

 

[FolkHero]

Thanks for your words but's not 4 in the row. Its 3-1 - We lost in Turkey.

Oh damn, I thought we won them all. I got the score update on my phone: Kardemir Karabuk 1 - 2 Elazigspor. However, I didn't realize Elazigspor won in a penalty shootout - so our no-Draw bet lost.

Oh well, good luck today.